This Position arose after a late hit from a ace-point game. It has been the first match in a match to nine. Most of the game has been pretty dull, the 4-cube has only been reached because of a little premature double and a wrong take at the redouble.
Is it a Take? Blue gets his equity from his lead in race. He has already 10 checkers off and even if he gets hit again, he has decent winning chance as long he is not closed out. So what is the probabilty that Blue accomplishes both? Lets give him 30% for each of his Tasks, that makes 9% (speak 10%) that he accomplishes both.
So we see that this is indeed an easy Take. Again again premature double from Blue.
Bold, save, something in between. Playing save means leaving the game to the dice. If White enters afterwards he will be the favorite to win the game. Blue has to options: 4/1, 2/off uses his board most effectively, even if White enters and hits, he still has to roll a five to leave, while Blue has a shot at his blot from the bar. 3/off, 2/off means playing bold, very bold. Stop a moment and have a look into Magriel's book: The criteria for playing bold:
In this situation the lesser number of checker Blue has removed from the board is the substitute for having more men back.
The bold play gives Blue more possibilies to win the game by playing and is has another advantage as we will see shortly after picking up the dice...
An immediate Redouble!
The Take is no question here. Blue doesn't like to be hit, but as we discussed before it won't be the end of the world. But sequence with a hit and not being hit back will make White loosing his market. Since the cube is dead after this double Blue has not recube vigorish and so White needs not to be such a big favorite to justify this cube.
These were the "hot" picks from this match. White's second blot got hit two rolls later and Blue won the game and the match. If you want to have a look at my blunders, download the whole match as Text or Snowie-Match file.